https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...31&cvid=1c76216c108848b0a23b2d077df33f10&ei=9
The first Trump administration flirted with protectionism, but nothing like what the second Trump administration is trying now. Those earlier efforts seem quaint in hindsight. Not only were tariffs imposed selectively on specific goods such as solar panels and aluminum, but they were much smaller in size and escalated gradually over the course of 2018 and 2019. This was trivial compared with the plans launched and unlaunched over the past 10 days that have sent bond markets reeling. Usually, investors in search of a haven from a plummeting stock market will flee to buy safe, reliable U.S. Treasury bonds, but the opposite seems to be happening, indicating that investors no longer view the U.S. government as the safest bet in town.
America sports a half-earned cockiness that has mostly served the country well. But as the Financial Times’ Tej Parikh pointed out earlier this week, the United States “isn’t the main driver of global trade growth,” and despite being the world’s largest economy, just over 13 percent of world imports flowed into its borders (as of November 2024). Instead of reshaping trade partnerships to further benefit the U.S., it could be left behind. One analysis Parikh cites—as something of a thought experiment, hopefully—tries to model what would happen to America’s trading partners if the country were to be fully closed to trade in 2025. That analysis predicts that, within the year, nearly 41 percent of U.S. trading partners would have fully recovered from the lost U.S. exports, and by 2029, 100 out of 144 trading partners would have recovered the entirety of their loss of U.S. sales because of the expected growth in other economies.